Gais 0–1 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Gais

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Djurgardens IF

P. Aslund 65'

4/6/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 1Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gais44%

×Draw26%

Djurgardens IF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Gais

1.49

Djurgardens IF

1.21

Gais creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Gais

1.68

Djurgardens IF

1.26

allows per match

Gais

1.15

Djurgardens IF

1.30

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Gais-0.15scores less

Djurgardens IF+0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gais or draw

69%

Gais or Djurgardens IF

74%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

56%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

21%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

77%

Gais 2+ goals

44%

Gais 3+ goals

19%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

70%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

34%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

59%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.68 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.49

Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 + Gais defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gais scores more

44%

level

26%

Djurgardens IF scores more

31%

Gais at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

J. Rinne

Djurgardens IF · G

9.3

Match Events

28'

William Milovanovic

40'

Matias Siltanen

56'

O. Pettersson← M. Andersson

59'

Kevin Holmén

63'

H. Sletsjoe← J. Fagerjord

65'

P. Aslund↳ O. Fallenius

70'

J. Okkels← O. Fallenius

76'

J. Lindberg← W. Milovanovic

76'

R. Wendin← M. de Brienne

76'

76'

77'

84'

84'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaisDjurgardens

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots12

2Corners10

14Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target5

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

9Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

465Total Passes431

372Accurate Passes321

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2

Allsvenskan: Gais 0–1 Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Gais 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 6, 2026.

Goals: P. Aslund (65').

Gais controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.

Gais vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: Gais 0–1 Djurgardens IF