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Gais vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
A. Ahl-Holmström 59'
G. Lundgren 54'
A. Henriksson 19'
9/22/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 23Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gais44%
×Draw26%
Djurgardens IF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.49
Djurgardens IF
1.21

Gais creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gais
1.68
Djurgardens IF
1.26

allows per match

Gais
1.15
Djurgardens IF
1.30

finishing

Gais-0.15scores less
Djurgardens IF+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gais or draw
69%
Gais or Djurgardens IF
74%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
56%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
21%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
77%
Gais 2+ goals
44%
Gais 3+ goals
19%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
70%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
34%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
59%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.68 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.49

Djurgardens IF attack 1.26 + Gais defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gais scores more
44%
level
26%
Djurgardens IF scores more
31%

Gais at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
G. LundgrenGaisGais · F
9.3

Match Events

19'
A. Henriksson↳ G. Lundgren
42'
Axel Norén
46'
D. Stensson← R. Schüller
46'
A. Ståhl← P. Therkildsen
46'
S. Haarala← H. Radetinac
54'
G. Lundgren↳ F. Beckman
57'
Keita Kosugi
59'
A. Ahl-Holmström↳ G. Lundgren
65'
M. Eriksson← B. Šabović
65'
V. Bergh← K. Kosugi
71'
F. Gustafsson← J. Åberg
71'
M. Çelik← A. Henriksson
76'
E. Becirovic← C. Amatkarijo
77'
J. Lindberg← A. Ahl-Holmström
87'
A. Boudri← W. Milovanovic

Possession

45%Gais

Shots

17Gais

Pass accuracy

49%Gais

Statistics

GaisDjurgardens
Overview
45%Possession55%
17Total Shots12
1.20Expected Goals (xG)1.28
4Corners6
11Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots12
8On Target4
5Off Target7
4Blocked1
10Inside Box6
7Outside Box6
Passing
45%Possession55%
436Total Passes531
360Accurate Passes451
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Gais 3–0 Djurgardens IF

Gais beat Djurgardens IF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on September 22, 2024.

Goals: A. Henriksson (19'), G. Lundgren (54'), A. Ahl-Holmström (59').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.