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Djurgardens IF vs Gais — Allsvenskan 2026

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gais
Gais
D. Hümmet 54'
4/28/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 6Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Djurgardens IF46%
×Draw26%
Gais28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.52
Gais
1.13

Djurgardens IF creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.88
Gais
1.30

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.96
Gais
1.17

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.26scores more
Gais+0.08on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
72%
Djurgardens IF or Gais
74%
Draw or Gais
54%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
23%
Gais wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
78%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
45%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
20%
Gais 1+ goals
68%
Gais 2+ goals
31%
Gais 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
62%
Gais (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 21 matches

Gais away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.17 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.88 + Gais defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gais attack 1.30 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
46%
level
26%
Gais scores more
28%

Djurgardens IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
S. DahlDjurgardens IFDjurgardens IF · D
7.6

Match Events

52'
August Wangberg
54'
D. Hümmet↳ H. Radetinac
56'
Axel Henriksson
56'
A. Henriksson← A. Boudri
58'
G. Wikheim← H. Radetinac
58'
B. Šabović← S. Leach Holm
58'
P. Therkildsen← P. Johansson
59'
L. Bergvall← M. Eriksson
70'
M. Çelik← A. Ahl-Holmström
70'
J. Cooper-Love← C. Amatkarijo
80'
M. Qurbanlı← D. Hümmet
83'
H. Ibrahim← J. Åberg
83'
J. Lindberg← W. Milovanovic
90+7'
Besard Sabović

Possession

60%Djurgardens

Shots

10Djurgardens

Pass accuracy

52%Djurgardens

Statistics

DjurgardensGais
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots11
0.54Expected Goals (xG)0.72
5Corners2
11Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots11
4On Target4
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
5Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
538Total Passes351
427Accurate Passes256
79%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Allsvenskan: Djurgardens IF 1–0 Gais

Djurgardens IF beat Gais 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Hümmet (54').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.