Frosinone 0–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spezia

E. Gyasi 21'

8/16/2020

Serie B · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsStadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Frosinone48%

×Draw22%

Spezia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.45

Frosinone

1.91

Spezia

1.45

Frosinone creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.92

creates per match

1.71

1.19

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Frosinone

1.92

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Frosinone

1.19

Spezia

1.90

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Frosinone+0.41scores more

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

71%

Frosinone or Spezia

78%

Draw or Spezia

52%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

27%

Spezia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

85%

Frosinone 2+ goals

57%

Frosinone 3+ goals

30%

Spezia 1+ goals

77%

Spezia 2+ goals

42%

Spezia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Spezia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.19 · 15 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.92 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.91

Spezia attack 1.71 + Frosinone defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Frosinone scores more

48%

level

22%

Spezia scores more

29%

Frosinone at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Salvador Ferrer

Spezia · D

7.7

Match Events

21'

E. Gyasi↳ G. Maggiore

23'

33'

57'

64'

65'

68'

71'

73'

74'

A. Galabinov← F. Ricci

79'

M. Erlic

83'

A. Novakovich

83'

A. Salvi← A. Beghetto

84'

A. Novakovich← M. Ardemagni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneSpezia

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots10

2Corners1

16Fouls29

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target2

2Off Target3

5Blocked5

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

362Total Passes415

244Accurate Passes315

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls29

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1

Serie B: Frosinone 0–1 Spezia

Spezia beat Frosinone 1-0 in Serie B on August 16, 2020.

Goals: E. Gyasi (21').

Spezia controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 0–1 Spezia