Fremad Amager 0–1 Esbjerg: Result & Stats

Fremad Amager

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Esbjerg

11/5/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fremad Amager32%

×Draw25%

Esbjerg43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fremad AmagerExpected goals in this matchEsbjerg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Fremad Amager

1.25

Esbjerg

1.50

Esbjerg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

1.31

creates per match

2.03

0.98

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Fremad Amager

1.31

Esbjerg

2.03

allows per match

Fremad Amager

0.98

Esbjerg

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Esbjerg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw

57%

Fremad Amager or Esbjerg

75%

Draw or Esbjerg

68%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

13%

Esbjerg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

71%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

36%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

13%

Esbjerg 1+ goals

78%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

44%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

42%

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + Esbjerg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Esbjerg attack 2.03 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fremad Amager scores more

32%

level

25%

Esbjerg scores more

43%

Esbjerg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff