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Esbjerg vs Fremad Amager — 1. Division 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
5/18/20221. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 8Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Esbjerg47%
×Draw25%
Fremad Amager28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
1.62
Fremad Amager
1.19

Esbjerg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 81 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
1.41
Fremad Amager
1.02

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.36
Fremad Amager
1.83

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
72%
Esbjerg or Fremad Amager
75%
Draw or Fremad Amager
53%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
25%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
80%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
48%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
22%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
70%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
33%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
63%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.41 + Fremad Amager defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

Fremad Amager attack 1.02 + Esbjerg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esbjerg scores more
47%
level
25%
Fremad Amager scores more
28%

Esbjerg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Esbjerg 2–3 Fremad Amager

Fremad Amager beat Esbjerg 3-2 in 1. Division on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.