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Fremad Amager vs Esbjerg — 1. Division 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
4/29/20221. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 5Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Fremad Amager44%
×Draw24%
Esbjerg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.60
Esbjerg
1.32

Fremad Amager creates 21% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 64 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.58
Esbjerg
1.34

allows per match

Fremad Amager
1.30
Esbjerg
1.63

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
68%
Fremad Amager or Esbjerg
76%
Draw or Esbjerg
56%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
22%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
80%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
47%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
22%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
73%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
38%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
58%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.58 + Esbjerg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Esbjerg attack 1.34 + Fremad Amager defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
44%
level
24%
Esbjerg scores more
32%

Fremad Amager at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fremad Amager vs Esbjerg

Fremad Amager beat Esbjerg 2-0 in 1. Division on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sundby Idrætspark in København.