Esbjerg 4–1 Fremad Amager: Result & Stats

Esbjerg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fremad Amager

8/13/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 2Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Esbjerg59%

×Draw21%

Fremad Amager20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsbjergExpected goals in this matchFremad Amager

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.14

Esbjerg

2.09

Fremad Amager

1.14

Esbjerg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

2.71

creates per match

1.17

1.10

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Esbjerg

2.71

Fremad Amager

1.17

allows per match

Esbjerg

1.10

Fremad Amager

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Fremad Amager →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw

80%

Esbjerg or Fremad Amager

79%

Draw or Fremad Amager

41%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+

36%

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals

88%

Esbjerg 2+ goals

62%

Esbjerg 3+ goals

34%

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

68%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

32%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)

74%

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 2.71 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.09

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Esbjerg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Esbjerg scores more

59%

level

21%

Fremad Amager scores more

20%

Esbjerg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff