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Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Preview
17:15
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
9/13/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Fredrikstad Stadion
Big match
40%
Fredrikstad
model favours
40%24%36%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Fredrikstad40%
×Draw24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.64
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.67

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.10scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
64%
Fredrikstad or Sarpsborg 08 FF
76%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
60%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
20%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
81%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
49%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
79%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
53%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
40%
level
24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
36%

Fredrikstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • 26% of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Fredrikstad
Balanced
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Balanced
45%Possession49%
75%Pass accuracy79%
11.2Shots13.1
1.36xGBiggest gap1.68
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FredrikstadSarpsborg 08 FF

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–22–01–11–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fredrikstad
LLLDD
FF
DWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fredrikstad host Sarpsborg 08 FF

September 13, 2026: Fredrikstad take on Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fredrikstad host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.