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Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Preview
16:00
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
11/1/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Fredrikstad Stadion
Big match
46%
Fredrikstad
model favours
46%24%31%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Fredrikstad46%
×Draw24%
Rosenborg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.71
Rosenborg
1.36

Fredrikstad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Rosenborg
1.39

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Rosenborg
1.81

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Rosenborg-0.01on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
69%
Fredrikstad or Rosenborg
76%
Draw or Rosenborg
54%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
24%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
82%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
51%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
24%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
74%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
39%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
60%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.81 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rosenborg attack 1.39 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
46%
level
24%
Rosenborg scores more
31%

Fredrikstad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosenborg have won 3 in a row
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 41% of Rosenborg’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fredrikstad
Balanced
Rosenborg
Possession-dominant
45%PossessionBiggest gap56%
75%Pass accuracy83%
11.2Shots13.6
1.36xG1.57
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FredrikstadRosenborg

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
0–20–12–21–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fredrikstad
LLLDD
Rosenborg
WWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fredrikstad face Rosenborg (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Fredrikstad hosting Rosenborg. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fredrikstad host Rosenborg at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.