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Fredrikstad vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Preview
16:00
Brann
Brann
11/8/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 26Fredrikstad Stadion
Big match
41%
Fredrikstad
model favours
41%24%35%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fredrikstad41%
×Draw24%
Brann35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fredrikstad
1.57
Brann
1.43

Fredrikstad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

creates per match

Fredrikstad
1.60
Brann
1.52

allows per match

Fredrikstad
1.33
Brann
1.54

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less
Brann+0.16scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw
65%
Fredrikstad or Brann
76%
Draw or Brann
59%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+
20%
Brann wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals
79%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
46%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
21%
Brann 1+ goals
76%
Brann 2+ goals
42%
Brann 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
54%
Brann (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Brann away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.54 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Brann defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.57

Brann attack 1.52 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fredrikstad scores more
41%
level
24%
Brann scores more
35%

Fredrikstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brann have scored in 10 games running
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Brann have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fredrikstad
Balanced
Brann
Possession-dominant
45%Possession61%
75%Pass accuracy82%
11.2Shots14.7
1.36xGBiggest gap1.87
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FredrikstadBrann

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
5
Brann
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 29%
1–30–13–00–42–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fredrikstad
LLLDD
Brann
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fredrikstad host Brann

November 8, 2026: Fredrikstad take on Brann in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fredrikstad host Brann at Fredrikstad Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.