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Brann vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
E. Kornvig 35'
9/28/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 19Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brann58%
×Draw22%
Fredrikstad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
1.96
Fredrikstad
1.06

Brann creates 85% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

creates per match

Brann
2.25
Fredrikstad
1.11

allows per match

Brann
1.02
Fredrikstad
1.66

finishing

Brann-0.08on par
Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brann or draw
80%
Brann or Fredrikstad
78%
Draw or Fredrikstad
42%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
34%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
86%
Brann 2+ goals
58%
Brann 3+ goals
31%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
65%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
29%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
74%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.02 · 24 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.96

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Brann defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brann scores more
58%
level
22%
Fredrikstad scores more
20%

Brann at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. KornvigBrannBrann · M
7.9

Match Events

35'
E. Kornvig↳ E. Gudmundsson
64'
N. Castro← U. Mathisen
66'
J. Bjartalid← M. Woledzi
75'
B. Finne← N. Holm
75'
M. Sande← E. Gudmundsson
77'
Martin Borsheim
78'
S. Laghzaoui← S. Sorlokk
78'
R. R. Shein← S. Owusu
87'
S. Rafn← L. Owusu
87'
L. Begby← S. Molde

Possession

66%Brann

Shots

17Brann

Pass accuracy

55%Brann

Statistics

BrannFredrikstad
Overview
66%Possession34%
17Total Shots8
2.50Expected Goals (xG)0.83
7Corners5
9Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots8
5On Target2
4Off Target4
8Blocked2
11Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
545Total Passes276
459Accurate Passes190
84%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Eliteserien: Brann 1–0 Fredrikstad

Brann beat Fredrikstad 1-0 in Eliteserien on September 28, 2025.

Goals: E. Kornvig (35').

Brann controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.