Brann 0–2 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fredrikstad

S. Molde 72', 42'

4/7/2024

Eliteserien · Round 2Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brann57%

×Draw22%

Fredrikstad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.07

Brann

1.93

Fredrikstad

1.07

Brann creates 80% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

2.25

creates per match

1.13

1.02

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Brann

2.25

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Brann

1.02

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Brann-0.08on par

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brann or draw

79%

Brann or Fredrikstad

78%

Draw or Fredrikstad

43%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

34%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

85%

Brann 2+ goals

57%

Brann 3+ goals

30%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

66%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

29%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

73%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.02 · 24 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.93

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Brann defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brann scores more

57%

level

22%

Fredrikstad scores more

21%

Brann at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Molde

Fredrikstad · M

8.9

Match Events

32'

Philip Sandvik Aukland

35'

Mai Traore

42'

S. Molde↳ M. Traoré

58'

B. Skaret← P. Aukland

59'

S. Rafn← M. Bjørlo

62'

M. Warming← N. Castro

62'

S. Kartum← E. Kornvig

68'

Júlíus Magnússon

72'

S. Molde↳ P. Metcalfe

73'

J. Sery Larsen← R. Kristiansen

73'

A. Heggebø← O. Didrik Blomberg

80'

H. Johansen← M. Traoré

86'

E. Segberg← S. Sørløkk

86'

J. Kjær← O. Aga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannFredrikstad

Overview

79%Possession21%

21Total Shots5

14Corners2

6Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots5

5On Target3

11Off Target1

5Blocked1

15Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

79%Possession21%

714Total Passes196

605Accurate Passes78

85%Pass Accuracy40%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Brann 0–2 Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad beat Brann 2-0 in Eliteserien on April 7, 2024.

Goals: S. Molde (42', 72').

Brann controlled possession (79%) and registered 21 shots to 5.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Brann 0–2 Fredrikstad