Brann 3–1 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad

B. Finne 90' (pen)

J. Soltvedt 69'

K. M. Ingason 6'

U. Fredriksen 90'

5/2/2026

Eliteserien · Round 7Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Brann57%

×Draw22%

Fredrikstad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.07

Brann

1.93

Fredrikstad

1.07

Brann creates 80% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

2.25

creates per match

1.13

1.02

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Brann

2.25

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Brann

1.02

Fredrikstad

1.61

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Brann-0.08on par

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Brann or draw

79%

Brann or Fredrikstad

78%

Draw or Fredrikstad

43%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

34%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

85%

Brann 2+ goals

57%

Brann 3+ goals

30%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

66%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

29%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

73%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.02 · 24 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.93

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Brann defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brann scores more

57%

level

22%

Fredrikstad scores more

21%

Brann at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Soltvedt

Brann · D

8.0

Match Events

6'

K. M. Ingason↳ U. Mathisen

46'

F. Ghebreyohannes← S. Leach

53'

Jonathan Norbye

61'

S. Laghzaoui← H. Skogvold

65'

K. Eriksen← U. Mathisen

65'

M. Haaland← J. Thorsteinsson

69'

J. Soltvedt↳ K. M. Ingason

71'

Kristian Eriksen

75'

M. Nilsson← F. Holme

77'

N. Wassberg← J. Sorensen

77'

J. Torsvik← J. Soltvedt

81'

B. Faraas← O. Ohlenschlaeger

81'

E. Granaas← J. Norbye

87'

B. Finne← N. Holm

90+4'

Kristian EriksenPenalty confirmed

90'

B. FinnePenalty

90'

U. Fredriksen↳ D. Eid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannFredrikstad

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots7

2.49Expected Goals (xG)0.94

3Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots7

4On Target3

6Off Target4

6Blocked0

12Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

514Total Passes330

403Accurate Passes229

78%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.41Goals Prevented-0.41

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3