Fredrikstad 0–4 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Fredrikstad

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Brann

B. Finne 83'

U. Mathisen 80'

M. Sande 69'

S. Kartum 44'

8/18/2024

Eliteserien · Round 19Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Fredrikstad41%

×Draw24%

Brann35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.43

Fredrikstad

1.56

Brann

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

1.52

1.33

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Brann

1.52

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Brann

1.52

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Brann+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

65%

Fredrikstad or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

59%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

20%

Brann wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

79%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

46%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

21%

Brann 1+ goals

76%

Brann 2+ goals

42%

Brann 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

54%

Brann (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Brann away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Brann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Brann attack 1.52 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

41%

level

24%

Brann scores more

35%

Fredrikstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Kristiansen

Brann · D

8.2

Match Events

43'

44'

46'

49'

58'

B. Hendriksson← S. Sørløkk

58'

J. Kjær← H. Skogvold

58'

M. Traoré← M. Bjørlo

65'

B. Finne← A. Heggebø

69'

M. Sande↳ O. Didrik Blomberg

70'

H. Johansen← P. Metcalfe

79'

U. Mathisen← S. Kartum

80'

U. Mathisen↳ T. Pedersen

83'

B. Finne↳ O. Didrik Blomberg

84'

S. Rafn← D. Eid

85'

Philip Sandvik Aukland

88'

M. Warming← O. Didrik Blomberg

88'

E. Helland← T. Pedersen

90+4'

Maxwell Woledzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadBrann

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots16

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.27

7Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots16

2On Target7

5Off Target5

5Blocked4

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

33%Possession67%

320Total Passes697

223Accurate Passes601

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2