Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Fortuna Dusseldorf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Wurzburger Kickers

D. Kownacki 82'

9/26/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 2Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf53%

×Draw23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DusseldorfExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.14

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.81

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.14

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 26 away

1.77

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.77

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.96

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.31

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw

76%

Fortuna Dusseldorf or FC Wurzburger Kickers

77%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

47%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

30%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

84%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

54%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

27%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

68%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

32%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

69%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.96 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

53%

level

23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

F. Kastenmeier

Fortuna Dusseldorf · G

8.6

Match Events

7'

10'

17'

32'

46'

54'

62'

S. Appelkamp← M. Sobottka

62'

J. Zimmer← K. Ofori

73'

D. Kownacki← K. Karaman

74'

R. Herrmann← D. Baumann

82'

84'

86'

89'

89'

89'

V. Nikolov← D. Kopacz

89'

T. Kraulich← N. Toko

90+3'

J. Siebert← S. Appelkamp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaFC

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots15

5Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target5

7Off Target8

1Blocked2

10Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

532Total Passes269

456Accurate Passes180

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

6Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1