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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
R. Munsy 67', 41'
R. Hennings 25'
1/29/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers31%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Dusseldorf45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.30
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.63

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 102 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.22
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.38

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.39

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
55%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Fortuna Dusseldorf
76%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
69%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
13%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
73%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
37%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
80%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
48%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
40%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.22 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.38 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
31%
level
24%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
45%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
R. MunsyFC Wurzburger KickersFC Wurzburger Kickers · F
8.9

Match Events

-5'
Stefan Maierhofer
25'
R. Hennings↳ K. Danso
36'
Thomas Pledl
41'
R. Munsy↳ M. Hasek
43'
Ridge Munsy
54'
Douglas
61'
A. Morales← E. Prib
61'
K. Karaman← T. Pledl
67'
R. Munsy↳ M. Pieringer
71'
Daniel Hägele
76'
K. Ofori← F. Klaus
82'
F. Ronstadt← A. Feick
82'
C. Klarer← L. Krajnc
82'
F. Hartherz← M. Sobottka
88'
D. Meisel← M. Hasek
90'
Andre Hoffmann
90'
S. Maierhofer← M. Pieringer

Possession

41%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCFortuna
Overview
41%Possession59%
9Total Shots11
5Corners9
10Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots11
2On Target3
4Off Target6
3Blocked2
5Inside Box10
4Outside Box1
Passing
41%Possession59%
313Total Passes441
220Accurate Passes334
70%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls11
4Yellow Cards2
6Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Fortuna Dusseldorf 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 29, 2021.

Goals: R. Hennings (25'), R. Munsy (41', 67').

Fortuna Dusseldorf controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.