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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
5/6/20172. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Merkur Spielarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf54%
×Draw23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.83
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.12

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 63% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.93

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
77%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
46%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
30%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
54%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
28%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
67%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
31%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
70%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
54%
level
23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
23%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Fortuna Dusseldorf and FC Wurzburger Kickers drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 6, 2017.

The match was played at Merkur Spielarena in Dusseldorf.