Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–1 Dynamo Dresden

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dynamo Dresden

L. Raimund 58'

E. Iyoha 17'

C. Itten 11'

J. Lemmer 90'

4/24/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 31Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf40%

×Draw26%

Dynamo Dresden33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.38

Dynamo Dresden

1.23

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.14

Dynamo Dresden

1.16

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

Dynamo Dresden

1.62

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.28scores more

Dynamo Dresden+0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Dynamo Dresden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or Dynamo Dresden

74%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden

60%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

19%

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

40%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

16%

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

71%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

35%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

55%

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.62 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.16 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

40%

level

26%

Dynamo Dresden scores more

33%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Itten

Fortuna Düsseldorf · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

C. Itten↳ F. Kastenmeier

17'

E. Iyoha↳ S. Appelkamp

45+1'

L. Raimund← C. Lenz

58'

L. Raimund↳ C. Itten

63'

L. Herrmann← K. Amoako

63'

J. Lemmer← J. Ceka

64'

J. Daland← M. Zimmermann

73'

J. Hettwer← E. Iyoha

73'

S. Kutschke← N. Hauptmann

73'

K. Faber← A. Rossipal

78'

C. Daferner← V. Vermeij

90'

J. Lemmer↳ B. Bobzien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaDynamo

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots17

1.15Expected Goals (xG)1.29

3Corners6

11Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots17

6On Target5

2Off Target4

1Blocked8

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

280Total Passes549

182Accurate Passes449

65%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Offsides4