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Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — DFB Pokal 2018

Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
R. Meißner 69'
F. Kastenmeier 17' (OG)
8/18/2024DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundRudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dynamo Dresden32%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden
1.52
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.83

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.33
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2.50

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.17
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw
55%
Dynamo Dresden or Fortuna Düsseldorf
77%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
68%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+
15%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals
78%
Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals
45%
Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals
20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
54%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)
42%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.33 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 2.50 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more
32%
level
23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
45%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
C. KammerknechtDynamo DresdenDynamo Dresden · D
8.3

Match Events

17'
F. KastenmeierOwn goal
55'
Marcel Sobottka
64'
D. Pejčinović← T. Rossmann
67'
O. Batista Meier← N. Hauptmann
69'
R. Meißner↳ O. Batista Meier
72'
N. Mbamba← M. Sobottka
72'
D. Jastrzembski← E. Iyoha
73'
J. Oehmichen← V. Šapina
73'
S. Kutschke← C. Daferner
74'
Jordy de Wijs
81'
Aljaž Casar
81'
Tony Menzel
81'
Felix Klaus
85'
Ao Tanaka
88'
L. Bünning← R. Meißner
88'
J. Marx← T. Menzel
88'
D. Schmidt← J. Niemiec
88'
J. Quarshie← J. de Wijs

Possession

47%Dynamo

Shots

27Dynamo

Pass accuracy

50%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoFortuna
Overview
47%Possession53%
27Total Shots13
5Corners5
9Fouls11
Shots
27Total Shots13
5On Target5
14Off Target3
8Blocked5
16Inside Box6
11Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
439Total Passes488
367Accurate Passes411
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Dynamo Dresden vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Dynamo Dresden beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 in DFB Pokal on August 18, 2024.

Goals: F. Kastenmeier (17' o.g.), R. Meißner (69').

Fortuna Düsseldorf controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 27.

The match was played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion in Dresden.