Dynamo Dresden 1–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf

Dynamo Dresden

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Dusseldorf

C. Daferner 43' (pen)

11/21/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Dynamo Dresden53%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo DresdenExpected goals in this matchFortuna Dusseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.06

Dynamo Dresden

1.75

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.06

Dynamo Dresden creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.76

creates per match

1.18

0.95

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.76

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.18

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden

0.95

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.74

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.78scores less than expected

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.15scores more

Fortuna Dusseldorf-0.78scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw

77%

Dynamo Dresden or Fortuna Dusseldorf

76%

Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf

47%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

30%

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

83%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

52%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

25%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

65%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

29%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

70%

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.76 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.18 + Dynamo Dresden defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more

53%

level

24%

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

23%

Dynamo Dresden at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

R. Hennings

Fortuna Dusseldorf · F

7.3

Match Events

38'

Michael Akoto

42'

Christoph Klarer

43'

C. DafernerPenalty

54'

J. Kade← L. Herrmann

63'

K. Peterson← F. Klaus

63'

M. Sobottka← A. Bodzek

66'

Christoph Daferner

69'

A. Diawusie← B. Borello

74'

G. Giorbelidze← M. Akoto

81'

R. Boženík← R. Hennings

81'

L. Koutris← F. Hartherz

85'

Tim Christopher Oberdorf

88'

Agyemang Diawusie

90'

J. Piotrowski← M. Zimmermann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoFortuna

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots11

4Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target2

3Off Target7

2Blocked2

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

317Total Passes430

219Accurate Passes306

69%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1