Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Dynamo Dresden

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf

V. Vermeij 53'

A. Rossipal 45'

C. Rasmussen 84'

11/30/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 14Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Dynamo Dresden54%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo DresdenExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.04

Dynamo Dresden

1.74

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.04

Dynamo Dresden creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.76

creates per match

1.12

0.95

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden

1.76

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.12

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden

0.95

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.72

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.79scores less than expected

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.15scores more

Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.79scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw

77%

Dynamo Dresden or Fortuna Düsseldorf

76%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

46%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

30%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

82%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

52%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

25%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

65%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

28%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

70%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.76 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.12 + Dynamo Dresden defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more

54%

level

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

23%

Dynamo Dresden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Rossipal

Dynamo Dresden · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

Florian Kastenmeier

45'

A. Rossipal

53'

V. Vermeij↳ N. Hauptmann

59'

Friedrich Muller

63'

Z. Celar← L. Raimund

63'

C. Rasmussen← M. Heyer

71'

V. Sapina← L. Herrmann

71'

N. Froling← J. Lemmer

73'

S. Appelkamp← S. Suso

73'

D. Schmidt← F. Muslija

78'

H. Anhari← T. Breithaupt

84'

C. Rasmussen↳ C. Itten

85'

A. Casar← K. Amoako

85'

C. Daferner← V. Vermeij

90+12'

Jesper Daland

90'

J. Oehmichen← N. Hauptmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoFortuna

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots13

2.39Expected Goals (xG)1.06

4Corners0

12Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target2

9Off Target7

3Blocked4

11Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

356Total Passes488

285Accurate Passes414

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3