Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld

1/16/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 18Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf45%

×Draw24%

Arminia Bielefeld31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.38

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.69

Arminia Bielefeld

1.38

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

1.77

creates per match

1.44

1.31

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.77

Arminia Bielefeld

1.44

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

Arminia Bielefeld

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

69%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or Arminia Bielefeld

76%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

55%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

23%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

50%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

24%

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

75%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

40%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

59%

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.60 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.77 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.44 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

45%

level

24%

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

31%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff