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Arminia Bielefeld vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trainingsgelände DSC Arminia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld23%
×Draw17%
Fortuna Düsseldorf60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld
1.92
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3.06

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld
2.40
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.11

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld
1.00
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.44

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw
40%
Arminia Bielefeld or Fortuna Düsseldorf
83%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
77%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
11%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
85%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
57%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
30%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
95%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
80%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
28%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 5.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.40 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 5.11 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more
23%
level
17%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
60%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Arminia Bielefeld and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände DSC Arminia in Bielefeld.