Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
10/1/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 10Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf45%
×Draw24%
Arminia Bielefeld31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.69
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
Arminia Bielefeld
1.60

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
69%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or Arminia Bielefeld
76%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld
55%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
23%
Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
50%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
24%
Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
75%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
40%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
59%
Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.60 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.44 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
45%
level
24%
Arminia Bielefeld scores more
31%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Arminia Bielefeld

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat Arminia Bielefeld 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.