Arminia Bielefeld 5–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Arminia Bielefeld

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf

8/2/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 1SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld43%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.33

Arminia Bielefeld

1.59

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.33

Arminia Bielefeld creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 102 away

1.79

creates per match

1.38

1.29

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.79

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.38

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.29

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

68%

Arminia Bielefeld or Fortuna Düsseldorf

76%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

57%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

80%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

47%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

74%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

38%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

58%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.79 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.38 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

43%

level

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

32%

Arminia Bielefeld at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff