Fortaleza FC 2–2 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Union Magdalena

J. Mondragón 84'

C. Rueda 64'

J. Pereira 44' (pen)

Aníbal Mosquera 11'

3/24/2018

Primera B · Round 6Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Fortaleza FC46%

×Draw26%

Union Magdalena28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.11

Fortaleza FC

1.49

Union Magdalena

1.11

Fortaleza FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 78 away

1.89

creates per match

1.26

0.97

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.89

Union Magdalena

1.26

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.97

Union Magdalena

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

72%

Fortaleza FC or Union Magdalena

74%

Draw or Union Magdalena

54%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

23%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

77%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

44%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

19%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

67%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

30%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

62%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Union Magdalena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.49

Union Magdalena attack 1.26 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Union Magdalena scores more

28%

Fortaleza FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Aníbal Mosquera

39'

C. Rodríguez← C. Pulido

44'

J. PereiraPenalty

46'

55'

64'

64'

71'

J. Miranda← Aníbal Mosquera

82'

D. Rentería← J. Viveros

84'

J. Mondragón

Fortaleza

Union

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Barato

39'▲C. Rodríguez←▼C. Pulido

46'▲S. Acosta←▼E. Cuernú

55'▲C. Rueda←▼J. Cuesta

Fortaleza FC substitutes

RodríguezAcostaRuedaPalaciosBullaCuernuGuerrero

Manager: H. Rivera

64'▲J. Valencia←▼D. Vega

71'▲J. Miranda←▼Aníbal Mosquera

82'▲D. Rentería←▼J. Viveros

Union Magdalena substitutes

ValenciaMirandaRenteríaRomeroSánchezBlanco

Primera B: Fortaleza FC 2–2 Union Magdalena

Fortaleza FC and Union Magdalena drew 2-2 in Primera B on March 24, 2018.

Goals: Aníbal Mosquera (11'), J. Pereira (44' pen), C. Rueda (64'), J. Mondragón (84').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota).

Fortaleza FC vs Union Magdalena — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Fortaleza FC 2–2 Union Magdalena