Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Foggia vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Ascoli
Ascoli
A. Gerbo 72'
C. Galano 14'
F. Deli 10'
S. Ganz 29'
R. Brosco 5'
10/6/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 7Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Foggia47%
×Draw25%
Ascoli28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.60
Ascoli
1.17

Foggia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 117 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.72
Ascoli
1.06

allows per match

Foggia
1.28
Ascoli
1.49

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
72%
Foggia or Ascoli
75%
Draw or Ascoli
53%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
24%
Ascoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
80%
Foggia 2+ goals
47%
Foggia 3+ goals
22%
Ascoli 1+ goals
69%
Ascoli 2+ goals
33%
Ascoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
63%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.72 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ascoli attack 1.06 + Foggia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Foggia scores more
47%
level
25%
Ascoli scores more
28%

Foggia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
R. Brosco↳ L. Laverone
10'
F. Deli↳ O. Kragl
14'
C. Galano
16'
Danilo Quaranta
29'
S. Ganz↳ M. Cavion
46'
D. Tonucci← G. Loiacono
56'
E. Cicerelli← M. Busellato
60'
Emanuele Cicerelli
62'
D. Frattesi← B. Addae
68'
Lorenzo Laverone
69'
L. Rosseti← G. Beretta
72'
A. Gerbo
80'
E. Baldini← S. Ganz
84'
Alberto Gerbo
86'
L. Rizzo← F. Deli
87'
Luca Martinelli

Possession

52%Foggia

Shots

10Foggia

Statistics

FoggiaAscoli
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots13
0Corners6
19Fouls20
Shots
10Total Shots13
6On Target4
4Off Target9
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls20
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides6

Serie B: Foggia 3–2 Ascoli

Foggia beat Ascoli 3-2 in Serie B on October 6, 2018.

Goals: R. Brosco (5'), F. Deli (10'), C. Galano (14'), S. Ganz (29'), A. Gerbo (72').

Foggia controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.