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Foggia vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
G. Loiacono 57'
F. Mazzeo 44'
F. Deli 24'
4/13/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Foggia48%
×Draw25%
Ascoli27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.62
Ascoli
1.15

Foggia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 119 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.75
Ascoli
1.04

allows per match

Foggia
1.25
Ascoli
1.49

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
73%
Foggia or Ascoli
75%
Draw or Ascoli
52%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
25%
Ascoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
80%
Foggia 2+ goals
48%
Foggia 3+ goals
22%
Ascoli 1+ goals
68%
Ascoli 2+ goals
32%
Ascoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
64%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.75 + Ascoli defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Ascoli attack 1.04 + Foggia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Foggia scores more
48%
level
25%
Ascoli scores more
27%

Foggia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
F. Deli↳ F. Mazzeo
44'
F. Mazzeo↳ M. Zambelli
46'
F. Kanoute← D. Buzzegoli
46'
N. Cherubin← V. Mogos
55'
Michael Agazzi
56'
I. Lanni← E. Baldini
57'
G. Loiacono↳ O. Kragl
72'
M. Duhamel← F. Nicastro
73'
G. Beretta← F. Mazzeo
78'
L. Scaglia← L. Greco

Possession

63%Foggia

Shots

12Foggia

Statistics

FoggiaAscoli
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots7
5Corners6
10Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots7
8On Target2
4Off Target5
Passing
63%Possession37%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Foggia vs Ascoli

Foggia beat Ascoli 3-0 in Serie B on April 13, 2018.

Goals: F. Deli (24'), F. Mazzeo (44'), G. Loiacono (57').

Foggia controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.