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Ascoli vs Foggia — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Foggia
Foggia
C. Chiricò 84'
M. Camporese 66'
11/12/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 14Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ascoli43%
×Draw28%
Foggia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.28
Foggia
0.98

Ascoli creates 31% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.16
Foggia
0.85

allows per match

Ascoli
1.11
Foggia
1.40

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Foggia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Foggia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
72%
Ascoli or Foggia
72%
Draw or Foggia
57%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
20%
Foggia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
72%
Ascoli 2+ goals
37%
Ascoli 3+ goals
14%
Foggia 1+ goals
62%
Foggia 2+ goals
26%
Foggia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
60%
Foggia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 118 matches

Foggia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Foggia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Foggia attack 0.85 + Ascoli defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ascoli scores more
43%
level
28%
Foggia scores more
28%

Ascoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Fedele← F. Deli
60'
E. Baldini← L. Clemenza
66'
M. Camporese
71'
C. D'Urso← G. Carpani
71'
C. Chiricò← F. Nicastro
77'
Alan Empereur← F. Mazzeo
80'
Guillaume Gigliotti
81'
C. Santini← S. Parlati
84'
C. Chiricò↳ G. Beretta
90'
Davide Agazzi

Possession

53%Ascoli

Shots

9Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliFoggia
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots8
6Corners9
8Fouls20
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target3
6Off Target5
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls20
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Ascoli vs Foggia

Foggia beat Ascoli 2-0 in Serie B on November 12, 2017.

Goals: M. Camporese (66'), C. Chiricò (84').

Ascoli controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.