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Ascoli vs Foggia — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Foggia
Foggia
N. Ninković 44'
L. Rosseti 12'
O. Kragl 90+5'
F. Deli 30'
2/26/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 26Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ascoli43%
×Draw28%
Foggia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.27
Foggia
0.96

Ascoli creates 32% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.16
Foggia
0.79

allows per match

Ascoli
1.12
Foggia
1.37

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Foggia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Foggia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
72%
Ascoli or Foggia
72%
Draw or Foggia
57%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
20%
Foggia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
72%
Ascoli 2+ goals
36%
Ascoli 3+ goals
14%
Foggia 1+ goals
62%
Foggia 2+ goals
25%
Foggia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
61%
Foggia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.12 · 119 matches

Foggia away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.16 + Foggia defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Foggia attack 0.79 + Ascoli defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ascoli scores more
43%
level
28%
Foggia scores more
28%

Ascoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
D. Quaranta← N. Valentini
12'
L. Rosseti↳ G. Beretta
23'
Francesco Deli
25'
Davide Frattesi
30'
F. Deli
43'
Massimiliano Busellato
44'
N. Ninković
56'
A. Ciciretti← L. Rosseti
61'
P. Iemmello← F. Deli
70'
O. Kragl← L. Matarese
72'
Pierre-Yves Ngawa
74'
Bright Addae
80'
Giacomo Beretta
80'
Luca Ranieri
80'
Lucas Chiaretti← E. Cicerelli
81'
M. Cavion← G. Beretta
82'
Michele Cavion
90+5'
O. Kragl↳ F. Mazzeo

Possession

36%Ascoli

Shots

8Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliFoggia
Overview
36%Possession64%
8Total Shots3
3Corners4
13Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots3
3On Target3
5Off Target0
Passing
36%Possession64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls17
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Serie B: Ascoli 2–2 Foggia

Ascoli and Foggia drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 26, 2019.

Goals: L. Rosseti (12'), F. Deli (30'), N. Ninković (44'), O. Kragl (90+5').

Foggia controlled possession (64%) and registered 3 shots to 8.

The match was played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.