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Fleetwood Town vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
14:00
Walsall
Walsall
10/10/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Highbury Stadium
Big match
39%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
39%26%36%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%
×Draw26%
Walsall36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.41
Walsall
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.61
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.91
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
64%
Fleetwood Town or Walsall
74%
Draw or Walsall
61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
18%
Walsall wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
76%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
41%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
17%
Walsall 1+ goals
74%
Walsall 2+ goals
39%
Walsall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
52%
Walsall (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Walsall attack 1.78 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
39%
level
26%
Walsall scores more
36%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Fleetwood Town play Defensively solid, Walsall Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
49%PossessionBiggest gap43%
68%Pass accuracy64%
12.2Shots12.0
1.42xG1.43
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownWalsall

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
1
Walsall
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 33%
1–01–12–06–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Walsall (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Walsall. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Walsall at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.