FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0–4 Ferencvarosi TC

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Ferencvarosi TC

A. Traoré 83', 17'

A. Pešić 75'

B. Varga 65' (pen)

8/24/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius19%

×Draw23%

Ferencvarosi TC58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchFerencvarosi TC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.81

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.91

Ferencvarosi TC

1.81

Ferencvarosi TC creates 99% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.11

creates per match

2.29

1.33

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.11

Ferencvarosi TC

2.29

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.33

Ferencvarosi TC

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

42%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Ferencvarosi TC

77%

Draw or Ferencvarosi TC

81%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

6%

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

60%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

23%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

6%

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

84%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

54%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

24%

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.11 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.29 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

19%

level

23%

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

58%

Ferencvarosi TC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Traoré

Ferencvarosi TC · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

A. Traoré

31'

Barnabás Varga

45+1'

L. Vaca← L. Antal

46'

Y. Karashima← M. Milićković

62'

Nicolas Gorobsov

65'

B. VargaPenalty

66'

J. Bopesu← M. Pavelić

70'

A. Pešić← B. Varga

70'

T. Nguen← Marquinhos

72'

D. Kazlauskas← A. Novikovas

75'

A. Pešić

80'

A. Esiti← K. Zachariassen

81'

M. Ben Romdhane← M. Abu Fani

83'

A. Traoré

87'

O. Kwabena← A. Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FKFerencvarosi

Overview

57%Possession43%

6Total Shots9

0Corners3

5Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots9

4On Target5

2Off Target3

0Blocked1

2Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

281Total Passes207

233Accurate Passes157

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4