FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–3 Ferencvarosi TC

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ferencvarosi TC

E. Diaw 90+3'

R. Mak 90+4'

R. Mmaee 72', 44'

7/27/2021

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius40%

×Draw25%

Ferencvarosi TC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchFerencvarosi TC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.33

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.46

Ferencvarosi TC

1.33

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.43

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.43

Ferencvarosi TC

1.67

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.00

Ferencvarosi TC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

66%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Ferencvarosi TC

75%

Draw or Ferencvarosi TC

60%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

19%

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

77%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

43%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

18%

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

74%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

38%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

54%

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.43 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.67 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

40%

level

25%

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

34%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

32'

34'

44'

57'

61'

T. Kiš← O. Onazi

61'

J. Tadic← J. Sylvestr

62'

70'

72'

76'

76'

R. Mak← M. Uzuni

87'

G. Jarusevičius← F. Kyeremeh

90+3'

E. Diaw↳ H. Vidémont

90+4'

R. Mak

FK4-3-3

Ferencvarosi4-3-3

8

⚽2

Mmaee

77

A

▼

Uzuni

10

▼

Nguen

16

Zacharias

14

Kharatin

7

▼

53

3

31

25

▼

90

1

26

23

⚽

7

13

22

11

A

Vidémont

20

▼

Onazi

12

▼

Sylvestr

14

Uzėla

77

▼

Kyeremeh

Manager: V. Cheburin

61'▲T. Kiš←▼O. Onazi

61'▲J. Tadic←▼J. Sylvestr

87'▲G. Jarusevičius←▼F. Kyeremeh

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

10Kiš27Tadic96Jarusevičius15Tatomirović25Duka81Mikulenas88Kuklys19Piliukaitis8Gamakov

Manager: P. Stöger

57'▲D. Sigér←▼Somália

70'▲O. Zubkov←▼T. Nguen

76'▲B. Vécsei←▼M. Blažič

76'▲R. Mak←▼M. Uzuni

Ferencvarosi TC substitutes

18Sigér11Zubkov19Vécsei20Mak44Lončar69Szánthó22Baturina70Boli1Bogdán42Varga57Lyinbor