Ferencvarosi TC vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — UEFA Champions League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Ferencvarosi TC54%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius25%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ferencvarosi TC creates 55% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ferencvarosi TC ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.89 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.03
FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.00 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Ferencvarosi TC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ferencvarosi TC host FK Zalgiris Vilnius on Tuesday, 20 July 2021 at 18:00. The match is part of the UEFA Champions League 2026/2027 season.
UEFA Champions League: Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Ferencvarosi TC beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on July 20, 2021.
Goals: M. Uzuni (25'), T. Nguen (39').
The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.