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Ferencvarosi TC vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Adama Malouda Traoré 48', 4'
B. Varga 42' (pen)
8/31/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsGroupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC60%
×Draw23%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencvarosi TC
1.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.79

Ferencvarosi TC creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC
0.71
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw
83%
Ferencvarosi TC or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
77%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
40%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
34%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
83%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
52%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
25%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
55%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
19%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
78%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.00 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 0.88 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more
60%
level
23%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
17%

Ferencvarosi TC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Adama Malouda TraoréFerencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC · M
8.9

Match Events

4'
Adama Malouda Traoré
23'
T. Duka← E. Gertmonas
38'
Marquinhos Costa
42'
B. VargaPenalty
46'
T. Nguen← Marquinhos
46'
A. Pešić← B. Varga
48'
Adama Malouda Traoré
54'
Aleksandar PešićGoal cancelled
65'
K. Lisztes← Adama Malouda Traoré
66'
M. Ben Romdhane← M. Abu Fani
66'
M. Pavelić← P. Mamić
66'
K. Kažukolovas← Y. Karashima
66'
A. Novikovas← O. Buff
71'
R. Jansonas← D. Kazlauskas
73'
C. Ramírez← E. Ćivić
90+2'
Cebrail Makreckis

Possession

51%Ferencvarosi

Shots

18Ferencvarosi

Pass accuracy

50%Ferencvarosi

Statistics

FerencvarosiFK
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots10
5Corners3
11Fouls7
Shots
18Total Shots10
8On Target3
4Off Target5
6Blocked2
11Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
428Total Passes412
357Accurate Passes341
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Ferencvarosi TC vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Ferencvarosi TC beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 31, 2023.

Goals: Adama Malouda Traoré (4', 48'), B. Varga (42' pen).

Ferencvarosi TC controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.