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First Vienna vs Donau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

First Vienna
First Vienna
CANC
17:00
Donau
Donau
1/26/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3First Vienna Football Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

First Vienna71%
×Draw15%
Donau14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna
2.96
Donau
1.25

First Vienna creates 137% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

First Vienna
2.60
Donau
1.00

allows per match

First Vienna
1.50
Donau
3.33

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw
86%
First Vienna or Donau
85%
Draw or Donau
29%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+
51%
Donau wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals
95%
First Vienna 2+ goals
79%
First Vienna 3+ goals
55%
Donau 1+ goals
71%
Donau 2+ goals
36%
Donau 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)
84%
Donau (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Donau away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 2.60 + Donau defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.96

Donau attack 1.00 + First Vienna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

First Vienna scores more
71%
level
15%
Donau scores more
14%

First Vienna at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Vienna vs Donau — Match Preview

First Vienna face Donau on January 26, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

First Vienna host Donau at First Vienna Football Campus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.