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Donau vs First Vienna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Donau
Donau
FT
0 – 6
First Vienna
First Vienna
6/4/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Donau14%
×Draw17%
First Vienna69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donau
1.11
First Vienna
2.62

First Vienna creates 136% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Donau
1.00
First Vienna
2.56

allows per match

Donau
2.67
First Vienna
1.22

finishing

Donau+0.00on par
First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

First Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Donau or draw
31%
Donau or First Vienna
83%
Draw or First Vienna
86%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+
5%
First Vienna wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals
67%
Donau 2+ goals
30%
Donau 3+ goals
10%
First Vienna 1+ goals
93%
First Vienna 2+ goals
73%
First Vienna 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)
17%
First Vienna (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.00 + First Vienna defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

First Vienna attack 2.56 + Donau defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Donau scores more
14%
level
17%
First Vienna scores more
69%

First Vienna at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donau vs First Vienna

First Vienna beat Donau 6-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 4, 2021.