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First Vienna vs Donau — Landesliga - Wien 2019

First Vienna
First Vienna
CANC
22:00
Donau
Donau
3/21/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Nachwuchszentrum First Vienna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

First Vienna67%
×Draw17%
Donau15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna
2.58
Donau
1.16

First Vienna creates 122% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

creates per match

First Vienna
3.71
Donau
1.67

allows per match

First Vienna
0.64
Donau
1.45

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par
Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Donau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw
85%
First Vienna or Donau
83%
Draw or Donau
33%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+
46%
Donau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals
92%
First Vienna 2+ goals
72%
First Vienna 3+ goals
47%
Donau 1+ goals
69%
Donau 2+ goals
32%
Donau 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)
81%
Donau (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 3.71 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.58

Donau attack 1.67 + First Vienna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

First Vienna scores more
67%
level
17%
Donau scores more
15%

First Vienna at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: First Vienna host Donau

March 21, 2021: First Vienna take on Donau in Landesliga - Wien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

First Vienna host Donau at Nachwuchszentrum First Vienna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.