Donau 0–4 First Vienna: Result & Stats

Donau

FT

0 – 4

First Vienna

9/5/2020

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 3Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Donau24%

×Draw23%

First Vienna53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonauExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.85

Donau

1.17

First Vienna

1.85

First Vienna creates 58% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 13 away

1.65

creates per match

2.69

1.02

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Donau

1.65

First Vienna

2.69

allows per match

Donau

1.02

First Vienna

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Donau or draw

47%

Donau or First Vienna

77%

Draw or First Vienna

76%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+

9%

First Vienna wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals

69%

Donau 2+ goals

33%

Donau 3+ goals

11%

First Vienna 1+ goals

84%

First Vienna 2+ goals

55%

First Vienna 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)

31%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + First Vienna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.17

First Vienna attack 2.69 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Donau scores more

24%

level

23%

First Vienna scores more

53%

First Vienna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff