Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–1 Belgrano Santa Rosa

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Belgrano Santa Rosa

S. Hernández 59'

M. Prioreschi 45'

4/9/2017

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 6Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP54%

×Draw26%

Belgrano Santa Rosa20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.80

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.50

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.80

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 88% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

0.73

0.88

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.20

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.73

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

80%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Belgrano Santa Rosa

74%

Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa

46%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

28%

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

78%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

44%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

19%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

55%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

19%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

73%

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.20 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.73 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

54%

level

26%

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

20%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

M. Prioreschi

59'

S. Hernández

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff