Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2–0 Belgrano Santa Rosa

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belgrano Santa Rosa

E. Hermida 90+5'

E. Riera 1'

11/27/2016

Torneo Federal A · Round 16Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP53%

×Draw27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.80

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.46

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.80

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 83% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 25 away

1.20

creates per match

0.72

0.88

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.20

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.72

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

79%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Belgrano Santa Rosa

73%

Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa

47%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

77%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

43%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

18%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

55%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

19%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

72%

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.20 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.72 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

53%

level

27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

21%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

E. Riera

60'

A. Uhaldegaray← M. Prioreschi

62'

G. Gentile← L. Parisi

68'

T. Altamiranda← J. Galárraga

82'

L. García← J. Guerra

90+5'

E. Hermida

Ferro

Belgrano

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Giganti

62'▲G. Gentile←▼L. Parisi

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

Gentile

Manager: J. Almada

60'▲A. Uhaldegaray←▼M. Prioreschi

68'▲T. Altamiranda←▼J. Galárraga

82'▲L. García←▼J. Guerra

Belgrano Santa Rosa substitutes

UhaldegarayAltamirandaGarcía

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2–0 Belgrano Santa Rosa

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Belgrano Santa Rosa 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 27, 2016.

Goals: E. Riera (1'), E. Hermida (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Belgrano Santa Rosa — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2–0 Belgrano Santa Rosa