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Belgrano Santa Rosa vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Belgrano Santa Rosa
Belgrano Santa Rosa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
T. Hernández 18'
F. Almerares 28'
3/12/2017Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 1Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa45%
×Draw28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.31
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.93

Belgrano Santa Rosa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 91 away

creates per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.27
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.85

allows per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.00
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.35

finishing

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Santa Rosa ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Belgrano Santa Rosa or draw
73%
Belgrano Santa Rosa or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
72%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
55%

Winning margin

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+
21%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals
73%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals
38%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals
14%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
61%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
24%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)
63%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Santa Rosa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 1.27 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.85 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more
45%
level
28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
27%

Belgrano Santa Rosa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belgrano Santa Rosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
T. Hernández
28'
F. Almerares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgrano Santa Rosa vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Belgrano Santa Rosa and Ferro Carril Oeste LP drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 12, 2017.

Goals: T. Hernández (18'), F. Almerares (28').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande in Santa Rosa, Provincia La Pampa.