Belgrano Santa Rosa 1–4 Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Belgrano Santa Rosa

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

J. Sánchez 89' (pen)

S. Aguirre 90+4'

L. Canelo 82'

F. Almerares 17'

P. Agüero 8'

11/5/2016

Torneo Federal A · Round 11Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa43%

×Draw29%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano Santa RosaExpected goals in this matchFerro Carril Oeste LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.92

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.23

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.92

Belgrano Santa Rosa creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

1.14

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.14

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.83

allows per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.00

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Santa Rosa ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Belgrano Santa Rosa or draw

72%

Belgrano Santa Rosa or Ferro Carril Oeste LP

71%

Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP

57%

Winning margin

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

19%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

71%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

35%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

13%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

60%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

23%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

61%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Santa Rosa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.32 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 1.14 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.83 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

43%

level

29%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

28%

Belgrano Santa Rosa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Belgrano Santa Rosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

P. Agüero

17'

F. Almerares

53'

C. Baldissoni← J. Lincopán

55'

E. Morete← M. Aubone

65'

M. Prioreschi← D. Pacco

65'

E. Riera← G. Gentile

74'

T. Altamiranda← N. De La Vega

75'

S. Aguirre← F. Almerares

82'

L. Canelo

89'

J. SánchezPenalty

90+4'

S. Aguirre

Belgrano

Ferro

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Almada

53'▲C. Baldissoni←▼J. Lincopán

65'▲M. Prioreschi←▼D. Pacco

74'▲T. Altamiranda←▼N. De La Vega

Belgrano Santa Rosa substitutes

BaldissoniPrioreschiAltamiranda

Manager: M. Giganti

55'▲E. Morete←▼M. Aubone

65'▲E. Riera←▼G. Gentile

75'▲S. Aguirre←▼F. Almerares

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

MoreteRieraAguirre

Match Recap: Belgrano Santa Rosa vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Belgrano Santa Rosa 4-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 5, 2016.

Goals: P. Agüero (8'), F. Almerares (17'), L. Canelo (82'), J. Sánchez (89' pen), S. Aguirre (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande in Santa Rosa, Provincia La Pampa.

Belgrano Santa Rosa vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Belgrano Santa Rosa vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP