Fenerbahçe 4–1 Kayserispor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kayserispor

A. Güler 90'

S. Dursun 58'

E. Mor 42', 8'

D. Kolovetsios 18'

4/6/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fenerbahçe59%

×Draw22%

Kayserispor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchKayserispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.98

Fenerbahçe

1.93

Kayserispor

0.98

Fenerbahçe creates 97% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

1.30

0.65

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.25

Kayserispor

1.30

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.65

Kayserispor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Kayserispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

81%

Fenerbahçe or Kayserispor

78%

Draw or Kayserispor

41%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

35%

Kayserispor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

85%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

57%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

30%

Kayserispor 1+ goals

62%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

26%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

76%

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Kayserispor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kayserispor attack 1.30 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

59%

level

22%

Kayserispor scores more

19%

Fenerbahçe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

E. Mor↳ E. Valencia

18'

D. Kolovetsios↳ O. Kemen

30'

E. Başsan← Carlos Mané

42'

E. Mor↳ S. Dursun

46'

Miguel Crespo← M. Zajc

46'

B. Mensah← M. Gavranović

57'

A. Uzodimma← A. Kocaman

58'

S. Dursun

67'

Willian Arão← İ. Yüksek

68'

68'

72'

75'

78'

A. Güler← E. Valencia

80'

İ. Parlak← M. Thiam

80'

R. Civelek← Miguel Cardoso

90'

A. Güler↳ S. Dursun

Statistics

FenerbahçeKayserispor

Overview

4Corners2

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1