Fenerbahçe 0–1 Kayserispor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kayserispor

R. Civelek 90+4'

2/8/2022

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fenerbahçe58%

×Draw23%

Kayserispor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchKayserispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.96

Fenerbahçe

1.85

Kayserispor

0.96

Fenerbahçe creates 93% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

1.27

0.65

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.25

Kayserispor

1.27

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.65

Kayserispor

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Kayserispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

81%

Fenerbahçe or Kayserispor

77%

Draw or Kayserispor

42%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

34%

Kayserispor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

84%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

55%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

28%

Kayserispor 1+ goals

62%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

25%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

75%

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Kayserispor defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kayserispor attack 1.27 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

58%

level

23%

Kayserispor scores more

19%

Fenerbahçe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

Uğur Demirok

46'

M. Hosseini← Carlos Mané

46'

J. Attamah← A. Parmak

46'

Miguel Cardoso← M. Pektemek

50'

D. Pelkas← O. Tufan

66'

D. Rossi← N. Sangaré

66'

S. Dursun← E. Valencia

73'

O. Kemen← A. Bertolacci

74'

75'

84'

85'

90+4'

Statistics

FenerbahçeKayserispor

Overview

10Corners0

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1