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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Erzgebirge AUE — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Erzgebirge AUE
Erzgebirge AUE
11/25/20162. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 14Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers40%
×Draw26%
Erzgebirge AUE34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.37
Erzgebirge AUE
1.25

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.00
Erzgebirge AUE
1.02

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
Erzgebirge AUE
1.74

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Erzgebirge AUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
66%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Erzgebirge AUE
74%
Draw or Erzgebirge AUE
60%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
18%
Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
75%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
40%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
16%
Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals
71%
Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals
36%
Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
54%
Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Erzgebirge AUE away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.00 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Erzgebirge AUE attack 1.02 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
40%
level
26%
Erzgebirge AUE scores more
34%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Erzgebirge AUE

FC Wurzburger Kickers and Erzgebirge AUE drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 25, 2016.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wuerzburg.