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Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Erzgebirge AUE
Erzgebirge AUE
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
4/30/20172. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 31Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Erzgebirge AUE49%
×Draw24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzgebirge AUE
1.69
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.21

Erzgebirge AUE creates 40% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

creates per match

Erzgebirge AUE
1.49
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.93

allows per match

Erzgebirge AUE
1.49
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89

finishing

Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge AUE ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Erzgebirge AUE or draw
73%
Erzgebirge AUE or FC Wurzburger Kickers
76%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
51%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+
26%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals
82%
Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals
50%
Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
70%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
34%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)
64%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge AUE at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge AUE attack 1.49 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Erzgebirge AUE scores more
49%
level
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
27%

Erzgebirge AUE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erzgebirge AUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

Erzgebirge AUE beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 30, 2017.

The match was played at Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue.