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Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — League #80 2026

Erzgebirge AUE
Erzgebirge AUE
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2/14/2016League #80League #80 · Round 25Sparkassen-Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Erzgebirge AUE59%
×Draw23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzgebirge AUE
1.85
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.94

Erzgebirge AUE creates 97% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Erzgebirge AUE
2.00
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.07

allows per match

Erzgebirge AUE
0.80
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.71

finishing

Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge AUE ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Erzgebirge AUE or draw
81%
Erzgebirge AUE or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
41%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+
34%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals
84%
Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals
55%
Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals
28%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
61%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)
76%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge AUE at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge AUE attack 2.00 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.07 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Erzgebirge AUE scores more
59%
level
23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
19%

Erzgebirge AUE at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Erzgebirge AUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

Erzgebirge AUE and FC Wurzburger Kickers drew 0-0 in League #80 on February 14, 2016.

The match was played at Sparkassen-Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue.