Erzgebirge AUE 2–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Erzgebirge AUE

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Wurzburger Kickers

F. Ballas 85'

F. Krüger 78'

R. Munsy 52'

1/26/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 18Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Erzgebirge AUE48%

×Draw24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzgebirge AUEExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

Erzgebirge AUE

1.67

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.22

Erzgebirge AUE creates 37% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 28 away

1.45

creates per match

0.93

1.51

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Erzgebirge AUE

1.45

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.93

allows per match

Erzgebirge AUE

1.51

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge AUE ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Erzgebirge AUE or draw

72%

Erzgebirge AUE or FC Wurzburger Kickers

76%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

52%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+

25%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals

81%

Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals

50%

Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals

23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

70%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

34%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)

63%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge AUE at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge AUE attack 1.45 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Erzgebirge AUE scores more

48%

level

24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

28%

Erzgebirge AUE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Erzgebirge AUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Männel

Erzgebirge AUE · G

7.7

Match Events

14'

Steve Breitkreuz

46'

C. Rizzuto← J. Strauß

48'

52'

55'

57'

70'

70'

74'

B. Zolinski← O. Gnjatić

78'

F. Krüger↳ P. Testroet

79'

F. Ronstadt← M. Pieringer

85'

F. Ballas↳ F. Krüger

87'

L. Samson← D. Nazarov

87'

S. Maierhofer← N. Toko

87'

T. Kraulich← P. Sontheimer

89'

Tobias Kraulich

89'

P. Zulechner← F. Krüger

90'

Mitja Lotrič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzgebirgeFC

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots12

6Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target6

6Off Target3

6Blocked3

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

512Total Passes302

424Accurate Passes208

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0